Monday, August 30, 2010

Brett Favre Breaking Down The Data

Brett Favre's will-he or won't-he waffling has been all the rage for almost five years now. Honestly, did some people really expect him not to eventually return? The guy hates training camp, we get it. What should be discussed, and is not, is this: Is this even the best case for the Vikings?

It seems like a no-brainer that they would want Favre back. He is, without a doubt, one of the finest QBs to ever play the game. He's coming off a season in which he led the Vikings to the NFC Championship game and was an overtime coin flip away from possibly beating the Saints and going to the Super Bowl - creating the network's dream of Favre vs. Peyton manning.

But does the data back the idea that Favre will recover from offseason surgery and return to form? Even before injuries Favre has been on an every-other-year quality cycle since his mid 30s. He is coming off a strong 2009 (33 touchdowns, 7 interceptions). But despite a solid start, his 2008 Jets' season turned into a debacle (22 touchdowns, league high 22 interceptions). His 2007 year with the Packers was one very good (28 touchdowns, 15 interceptions) - and was also the season that saw him break the career touchdown pass record. But his 2006 campaign was also not good (18 touchdowns, 18 interceptions). Even years have not been kind to #4 for the past half decade.

We also have to examine the opportunity cost for the Vikings. Obviously, Favre is a better option than Tavaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels. Neither of those guys has shown much ability in limited opportunities. However, the Vikings could have taken Jimmy Clausen (who went #48) in this year's draft (they used the #34 pick on a cornerback instead). He was almost universally rated as one of the top 2 QBs available and the Vikings are going to need a new QB sooner than later regardless of Favre's waffling. Nobody plays QB deep into their 40s in the modern NFL.

The Vikings also could have made a strong play for Donovan McNabb this past offseason - they had more resources to offer the Eagles than the Redskins (who eventually won McNabb did). McNabb is coming off a 22 touchdown, 10 interception season. Despite never having a great receiving core, with the exception of a couple years with Terrell Owens, McNabb has never thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns in a single season and has not thrown more than 11 interceptions in a season since his third year. Other former starters like Jason Campbell (20 touchdowns, 15 interceptions with an awful Redskins team that couldn't protect him) and Brady Quinn (8 touchdowns, 7 interceptions) were also available. Both have had mixed reviews thus far, but might have found success with a ready-made playoff team like Minnesota.

Regardless, Minnesota sat on their hands waiting for Favre's decision. Luckily for them, he has decided to return. Will this be a situation where he rides off into the sunset (well, maybe) and delivers a championship...or a case of be careful what you wish for? The next 5 months will tell.

-Eric Westerman
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